WEBVTT

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Winding down or not, you still need to know where to invest, so let's get some advice from a billionaire.
不論景氣是否走跌，你還是要知道投資標的為何，所以我們來聽聽億萬富翁的建議吧。

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The investor Jim Rogers sat down for a cup of Chinese tea -- that's significant -- with CNN's Felicia Taylor in New York.
投資大師吉姆．羅傑斯在紐約，和本台的費莉莎．泰勒坐下來喝了杯中國茶，這點很重要。

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Still driving hard, Jim Rogers is famously bullish on China having moved his family to Singapore to be closer to the Asian giant.
仍然經常長途駕車的吉姆．羅傑斯，以他對中國的看好度而聞名，為此他將全家遷往新加坡，以便更接近中國這個亞洲巨人。

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He made his fortune at the Quantum Fund with George Soros,
他在量子基金和索羅斯工作時致富，

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retired at 37 and drove around the world by motorbike, and then by car, journeys he chronicled in best-selling books.
三十七歲退休，並先後駕著摩托車、汽車到全球旅行，這些旅程都記錄在他的暢銷書中。

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We caught up with him on a recent visit to New York.
我們趁他最近一次前往紐約時採訪了他。

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Obviously, you've been bullish on China for a long time. Are you still bullish, as bullish as you've been?
很顯然地，您看好中國已經很久了。您依舊一如以往地看好中國嗎？

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Yes, I'm very optimistic about the future of China. My children speak Mandarin.
是的，我對於中國的未來感到非常樂觀，我的孩子會說華語。

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And there will be setbacks in China. Don't worry, Felicia, there'll be many problems in China.
中國將會遇到挫折，Felicia，你放心，中國會遇到很多問題，

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There is probably a real estate bubble in urban coastal real estate in China, but that's not China.
中國沿海都會區的房地產可能會出現房地產泡沫的問題，但是那並非全中國。

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Here we had a huge real estate problem which took us down for many reasons because it was very pervasive.
美國這裡有很嚴重的房地產問題，因為很多不同原因拖垮了我們，因為問題的穿透性非常強。

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That's not China. China has many other things going for it.
中國並非如此，中國有很多其它方面的發展。

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China's got a huge savings rate. They save and invest 35 percent of their income.
中國有極高的儲蓄率，中國人將收入的百分之三十五進行儲蓄及投資，

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They work from dawn to dusk. They're the largest creditor nation in the world.
他們從清晨工作到黃昏。他們是全球最大的債權國。

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They're not always on the up and up.
中國並非諸事皆順，

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Even... even the...I think it was the vice...Chinese vice premier admitted that their economic data was what he called "manmade."
就連……我想是副……中國副總理都承認中國的官方經濟數據都是他所謂「人造的」。

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I mean, so they're manufacturing numbers that they can't count on.
所以他們在製造一些他們自己都不能信賴的數字。

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Felicia, it's like ours. You believe the numbers that come out of the U.S. government?
費莉莎，這和我們一樣。你相信美國政府公布的數據嗎？

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You believe the numbers that come out of any government?
你相信任何政府公布的數據嗎？

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Oh, if you believe numbers that...Ho! I've been waiting for somebody like you.
如果你相信那些數據……我一直在等待一個像你這樣的人。

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If you believe what people tell you, if you believe any government numbers.
如果你相信別人告訴你的事，如果你相信任何政府的數據的話。

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They're all made up. How can they possibly know most of the stuff they say.
那些都是編造出來的。他們怎麼可能懂得大部分自己說過的話？

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In the U.S., we're constantly changing the numbers. We're constantly saying, "Oh, gosh, We were wrong." 
在美國，我們經常在修改數據，我們經常說：「天啊，我們搞錯了。」

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Look at Mr. Bernanke. Mr. Bernanke's been in Washington for eight years.
瞧瞧柏南奇。柏南奇先生在華府待了八年了，

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Every month, about everything that he's ever said, he's been wrong.
每個月他說過的每一件事都會出錯。

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He has most recently talked about inflation, and he is 100-percent certain that he can contain inflation.
他最近說過關於通貨膨脹的事，他百分之百肯定他可以控制通貨膨脹。

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Do you think that's true?
您認為這句話是真的嗎？

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If you go to the grocery store, if you go anywhere, you know that prices are going up.
如果你到雜貨店去，到任何地方去，你都知道物價都在上漲，

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Whether it's education or insurance or medical care or groceries, everything is going up in price.
不論是教育或保險或醫療照顧或雜貨，每樣東西的價格都在上漲。

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The government keeps telling us there's no inflation. Where do they shop?
政府不斷告訴我們沒有通膨。他們在哪裡購物呢？

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How can they sit and tell us there's no inflation when it's as clear as day that there's inflation everywhere,
他們怎麼能坐在那裡，然後告訴我們沒有通膨，但顯然到處都有通膨，

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and it's getting worse, not better.
而且情況愈來愈糟，而非愈來愈好。

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What does this country need to do to solve the unemployment problem?
美國必須怎麼做才能解決失業問題？

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Whenever you have a long period of excess, eventually, let's say you had a...were drinking for three weeks in a row.
每當你有很長一段時間的過度耽溺，比方說你……連續喝了三個星期的酒。

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That's a period of...you're gonna have to pay for that. 
那一段期間……你就得為此付出代價，

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You're gonna have hangovers, you're gonna have illnesses, you're gonna have problems.
你會有宿醉，會生病，會出問題。

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We had a 20...at least 20 years of excess in America in the credit markets, the housing, in many markets.
在美國，我們的信用市場、房市、以及很多市場，都經歷了二十……至少二十年的過度成長。

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We've gotta pay the price.
我們必須為此付出代價。

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I don't like saying it, but we cannot just snap our fingers and, well everything's OK now; let's start over.
我不喜歡這麼說，但我們不能輕鬆地彈個手指說，現在一切都很好；我們重新來過吧。

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But does that mean that there really is nothing that Bernanke and company can do? I mean, it just has to ride its course.
這表示柏南克和其它政府官員真的無計可施了嗎？我的意思是，我們非走這一遭不可嗎？

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They can stay out of the way and let the system work itself out.
他們可以不要插手，然後讓經濟體系自己解決問題。

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Let the market clear, to use that expression.
用我的說法就是，讓市場清空。

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Throughout history, when people get in trouble, they go bankrupt, competent people come in, reorganize and it starts over.
綜觀歷史，人們一旦出問題就會破產，有能力的人就會介入，重新組織然後再次來過。

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You have a period of pain. There's no question you have a period of pain.
你會經歷一段時間的痛苦。毫無疑問地有段時間你會感到痛苦，

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But after the pain, things start over from a sounder base.
但是痛苦過後，事情就會在一個更健康的基礎上再次來過。

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Now, Scandinavia had this problem 20 years ago. Everybody went bankrupt.
北歐二十年前經歷過這樣的問題，每個人都破產了，

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It was horrible for three years, but then they had a 15-year boom.
有三年的時間情況很恐怖，但他們卻也締造了十五年的榮景。

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Korea, Chile, lots of people have been through this. They take the pain, they reorganize and start over.
韓國、智利、很多人都經歷過這一切。他們承受了痛苦，重新組織然後再次來過。

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It's not fun, but when you make bad mistakes, somebody has to pay. It's the way the world works. 
這麼做並不好玩，但是當你犯了不好的錯誤時，有人就得付出代價。這就是世界運作的方式。